Invest in early years education and childcare
Green · what the evidence says
An independent, source-checked look at Green’s policy “Invest in early years education and childcare” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.
Public finances & the next generation — Mixed picture
moderate · moderate confidence
The policy commits £1.4bn per year of new spending with no stated funding source, adding near-term pressure on borrowing or other budgets; however, IFS-backed evidence suggests Sure Start generates more than £2 in long-run public-purse benefits for every £1 spent, meaning the investment could improve fiscal sustainability over the long run if the returns materialise at scale. The main caveat is that funding source is unspecified and provider cost pressures could erode value.
The evidence
- The policy commits £1.4bn per year to Sure Start Centres and extends childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Invest £1.4bn per year in Sure Start Centres and, in negotiation with the sector, extend the offer of childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months”
- At its peak in 2009-10, Sure Start running costs were approximately £2.7bn per year in 2023-24 prices, well above the proposed £1.4bn. — theguardian.com (media) — “At its peak in 2009-10, Sure Start's running costs were approximately £2.7 billion a year (in 2023–24 prices)”
- Total public spending on early childhood education and care is already projected at £10.5bn in 2025-26, double the 2010-11 figure. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “total spending projected to be £10.5 billion in 2025–26, double the 2010–11 figure”
- Take-up of existing childcare entitlements for under-threes has been higher than anticipated, creating around £1bn of additional spending pressure by 2028-29 beyond initial budgets. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “Take-up of the new entitlements for working families with children under three has been higher than anticipated, leading to potential additional spending pressure of around £1 billion more than initially budgeted by 2028…”
- IFS-backed analysis finds Sure Start generated £2.05 in total benefits per £1 invested over the long run. — theguardian.com (media) — “For every £1 invested, Sure Start created £2.05 in total benefits over the long run”
- The long-run public-purse benefits from Sure Start are estimated at approximately £2.4bn per year-group, suggesting a positive fiscal return over time. — theguardian.com (media) — “approximately £2.4 billion in long-run benefits for the public purse”
- Childcare providers face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding. — theguardian.com (media) — “childcare providers face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding”
Biggest unknown: Whether the £1.4bn/year is funded (tax rises, cuts elsewhere) or borrowed, and whether the long-run fiscal returns estimated from the original Sure Start programme replicate under a re-scaled, extended model with current provider cost pressures.
Our reading: O12 asks whether the fiscal arithmetic improves or worsens the debt path and whether borrowing finances consumption or productive investment. This policy has two distinct fiscal signals that point in opposite directions across time horizons, producing a genuine 'mixed' verdict. Near-term: the policy commits £1.4bn/year of additional public spending with no stated funding mechanism. This is below historic Sure Start peak costs (£2.7bn in today's prices), so it is not a restoration to full scale, but it is still a significant new commitment on top of a childcare budget already at £10.5bn/year and already running over-budget due to higher-than-expected take-up. Without an identified funding source, it represents near-term borrowing or displacement pressure — a cost to the current debt path. Long-term: the IFS-backed evidence is among the strongest available for any social programme. A £2.05 return per £1 invested, with £2.4bn in public-purse benefits per year-group, is consistent with the 'borrowing to invest' model that the O12 rubric explicitly says can improve long-run sustainability. The mechanism (reduced hospitalisations, higher earnings, lower benefit dependency) is evidenced, not merely asserted. However, two risks temper the long-run optimism. First, provider cost pressures mean that headline spending figures may not translate into equivalent quality or coverage — eroding the returns. Second, the extended 35-hour model goes beyond the original Sure Start evidence base, and take-up of similar extensions has already outstripped budget assumptions by ~£1bn. The fiscal return therefore depends heavily on quality being maintained, which the evidence identifies as a binding constraint. Overall: real near-term fiscal cost (unfunded); real but uncertain long-run fiscal benefit. Both sides are supported by cited evidence, warranting 'mixed' at moderate magnitude and long-term horizon.
Cost of living — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
This policy extends free childcare to 35 hours per week and reinvests in Sure Start Centres, directly reducing childcare costs for working families and boosting disposable income. The main caveat is that the £1.4bn annual funding is less than half of peak Sure Start spending in real terms, and provider capacity pressures may limit how much families actually benefit.
The evidence
- The policy commits £1.4bn per year to Sure Start Centres and extends free childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months old. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Invest £1.4bn per year in Sure Start Centres and, in negotiation with the sector, extend the offer of childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months”
- Sure Start at its peak cost approximately £2.7bn per year in today's prices, more than double the proposed £1.4bn. — theguardian.com (media) — “At its peak in 2009-10, Sure Start's running costs were approximately £2.7 billion a year (in 2023–24 prices)”
- Extending free childcare hours is expected to increase mothers' labour market participation and working hours, raising household incomes. — obr.uk (institutional) — “mothers of very young children already in work are expected to increase their working hours”
- A further extension to 35 hours per week could boost the UK economy by supporting working parents, with one estimate suggesting early childhood investment could add at least £45.5bn annually. — maternalmentalhealthalliance.org (media) — “potentially boosting the UK economy by supporting working parents and caregivers, with one Royal Foundation report suggesting that investing in early childhood could add at least £45.5 billion to the UK economy annually”
- Childcare providers already face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding. — theguardian.com (media) — “childcare providers face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding”
- Take-up of existing childcare entitlements has been higher than anticipated, leading to potential additional spending pressure of around £1bn more than budgeted by 2028-29. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “Take-up of the new entitlements for working families with children under three has been higher than anticipated, leading to potential additional spending pressure of around £1 billion more than initially budgeted by 2028…”
- Sure Start generated higher lifetime earnings averaging £7,800 per child in post-tax terms. — theguardian.com (media) — “equating to an average boost of £7,800 to lifetime post-tax earnings”
- Benefits from Sure Start were more pronounced for children from the poorest backgrounds. — en.wikipedia.org (media) — “These educational improvements were more pronounced for children from the poorest and non-white backgrounds”
Biggest unknown: Whether £1.4bn per year is sufficient to fund quality provision at 35 hours per week, given that peak Sure Start funding was approximately £2.7bn per year in real terms and existing entitlements already face capacity and cost pressures.
Our reading: For O2 (cost of living), the direct mechanism is clear: extending free childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months reduces out-of-pocket childcare costs for working families, directly increasing disposable income. The reinvestment in Sure Start Centres adds parental employment support, compounding the income effect over time. Evidence on Sure Start's long-run earnings boost (£7,800 per child in lifetime post-tax earnings) and the OBR's expectation that mothers will increase working hours both support an improvement in household finances, though these gains are long-term rather than immediate. However, the proposed £1.4bn annual investment is less than half of peak Sure Start spending in real terms (£2.7bn), which creates a delivery risk. Provider cost pressures and higher-than-expected take-up of existing entitlements signal system strain that could limit whether families can actually access the full 35-hour entitlement in practice. The improvement to cost of living is real but conditional on delivery — immediate relief on childcare bills for working parents is plausible, but magnitude depends on whether providers can actually offer the hours at sufficient quality. The effect is moderate rather than major because the funding gap relative to historical provision and existing system pressures limit confidence in full delivery. The time horizon is long-term because the larger income gains through higher maternal employment and children's future earnings accumulate over years.
Good work & fair pay — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
Expanding childcare hours and reinvesting in Sure Start-style centres is projected to help parents — especially mothers — work more and earn more, while giving disadvantaged children a better start that boosts their long-run earnings. The main caveat is whether enough quality childcare places can be found to meet demand.
The evidence
- The policy commits £1.4bn per year to Sure Start Centres and extends childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months, focusing on play-based learning. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Invest £1.4bn per year in Sure Start Centres and, in negotiation with the sector, extend the offer of childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months, focusing on play-based learning.”
- IFS research found Sure Start generated £2.05 in total benefits for every £1 invested. — theguardian.com (media) — “For every £1 invested, Sure Start created £2.05 in total benefits over the long run”
- Sure Start was linked to an average boost of £7,800 to lifetime post-tax earnings per child. — theguardian.com (media) — “equating to an average boost of £7,800 to lifetime post-tax earnings”
- Educational improvements from Sure Start were more pronounced for children from the poorest and non-white backgrounds. — en.wikipedia.org (media) — “These educational improvements were more pronounced for children from the poorest and non-white backgrounds”
- Sure Start centres provided parental employment support, particularly benefiting disadvantaged families. — en.wikipedia.org (media) — “Sure Start centres provided a "one-stop shop" offering early learning, childcare, parenting support, health services, and parental employment support, particularly benefiting disadvantaged families”
- The OBR views expanded childcare primarily as a means to increase labour market participation, particularly for mothers. — committees.parliament.uk (government) — “Organisations like the OBR primarily view expanded childcare as a means to increase labour market participation, particularly for mothers”
- Mothers of very young children already in work are expected to increase their working hours as childcare expands. — obr.uk (institutional) — “mothers of very young children already in work are expected to increase their working hours”
- Extending to 35 hours per week could boost the UK economy by supporting working parents and caregivers. — maternalmentalhealthalliance.org (media) — “The further extension to 35 hours per week is likely to amplify this effect, potentially boosting the UK economy by supporting working parents and caregivers”
- Play-based learning can deliver moderate improvements — around four additional months' progress — but gains may not be sustained unless provision quality is high. — educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk (media) — “increasing the amount of early years education can lead to moderate improvements (an average of four additional months' progress), these gains may not be sustained into primary school unless the quality of provision is h…”
- Provider capacity concerns persist: total registered places increased only 1% between 2024 and 2025, and workforce pressures remain. — explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk (government) — “Although the total number of registered places increased slightly (1% between 2024 and 2025) due to more group-based provision, concerns about overall capacity and the workforce persist”
- Childcare providers face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding. — theguardian.com (media) — “childcare providers face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding”
- Sure Start's peak running costs were approximately £2.7 billion a year in 2023–24 prices, significantly above the proposed £1.4bn. — theguardian.com (media) — “At its peak in 2009-10, Sure Start's running costs were approximately £2.7 billion a year (in 2023–24 prices)”
Biggest unknown: Whether provider capacity and workforce supply can scale to deliver 35 hours of quality provision, since existing pressures are already causing concern even at current entitlement levels.
Our reading: This policy has two main channels through which it affects O4 — good work and fair pay. First, expanded affordable childcare directly supports parental employment, especially for mothers of young children. The OBR identifies expanded childcare as primarily a labour market participation measure, and existing evidence supports increased working hours for mothers. The extension to 35 hours per week would amplify this effect, reducing the childcare cost barrier that keeps many parents — disproportionately women — out of work or in fewer hours than they'd prefer. Second, Sure Start-style investment has a strong evidence base for improving long-run earnings of children who use the centres. IFS research shows a £7,800 average lifetime post-tax earnings boost per child and a £2.05 return for every £1 invested. These gains are larger for children from the poorest backgrounds, meaning the policy has a progressive distributional profile. Higher lifetime earnings in adulthood is a long-term O4 improvement. The main risks to delivery are significant. The proposed £1.4bn is well below Sure Start's peak cost of ~£2.7bn in today's prices, raising questions about whether the network can be restored at scale. Provider capacity is already strained at current entitlement levels, with only 1% growth in places and persistent workforce pressures. If quality cannot be maintained at 35 hours, the developmental and earnings gains from play-based learning may not materialise, since the EEF finds that gains are contingent on high-quality, well-staffed provision. On balance, the evidence leans toward a moderate improvement in O4, felt mainly in the long term (through children's adult earnings) with some near-term labour market effect for parents. The funding gap relative to peak Sure Start and capacity constraints introduce meaningful uncertainty, keeping confidence at moderate.
Education & opportunity — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
Reinvesting in Sure Start centres and extending childcare to 35 hours a week from nine months old is likely to improve children's early development and narrow the attainment gap, especially for poorer children. The main caveat is that benefits depend heavily on the quality of provision and whether £1.4bn is enough to restore capacity after years of cuts.
The evidence
- The policy commits £1.4bn per year to Sure Start Centres and extends childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months, with a focus on play-based learning. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Invest £1.4bn per year in Sure Start Centres and, in negotiation with the sector, extend the offer of childcare to 35 hours per week from nine months, focusing on play-based learning.”
- Sure Start generated £2.05 in total benefits for every £1 invested over the long run. — theguardian.com (media) — “For every £1 invested, Sure Start created £2.05 in total benefits over the long run”
- Sure Start produced approximately £3.1bn in higher earnings for each year group and an average £7,800 boost to lifetime post-tax earnings. — theguardian.com (media) — “£3.1 billion in higher earnings for each year group using the centres, equating to an average boost of £7,800 to lifetime post-tax earnings”
- Educational improvements from Sure Start were more pronounced for children from the poorest and non-white backgrounds. — en.wikipedia.org (media) — “These educational improvements were more pronounced for children from the poorest and non-white backgrounds”
- Sure Start improved children's mental health and reduced unauthorised school absences by 15% at age 15. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “Access to Sure Start also improved children's mental health and reduced unauthorised school absences by 15% at age 15”
- At peak funding in 2009-10, Sure Start's running costs were approximately £2.7bn per year in 2023-24 prices — nearly double the proposed £1.4bn. — theguardian.com (media) — “At its peak in 2009-10, Sure Start's running costs were approximately £2.7 billion a year (in 2023–24 prices)”
- Childcare providers already face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which erode the real value of government funding. — theguardian.com (media) — “childcare providers face rapidly rising costs, particularly wage bills, which can erode the real value of government funding”
- Concerns about overall capacity and the childcare workforce persist despite a slight increase in registered places. — explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk (government) — “concerns about overall capacity and the workforce persist”
- The EEF finds that increasing the quantity of early years education produces moderate gains (around four additional months' progress) but these may not be sustained without high-quality, well-trained staff. — educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk (media) — “increasing the amount of early years education can lead to moderate improvements (an average of four additional months' progress), these gains may not be sustained into primary school unless the quality of provision is h…”
- Play-based learning is linked to moderate positive impacts on early literacy, language, and numeracy, and can be particularly beneficial for disadvantaged children. — my.chartered.college (media) — “Play-based approaches have been linked to positive outcomes in early literacy, language development, and early numeracy, with moderate positive impacts (around four additional months' progress) on learning outcomes”
- The effectiveness of play-based learning depends critically on quality of provision and staff training. — educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk (media) — “The effectiveness of play-based learning is linked to the quality of the provision and the training of staff”
Biggest unknown: Whether £1.4bn per year — roughly half peak Sure Start funding in real terms — is sufficient to restore quality provision at scale, given ongoing workforce shortages and rising provider costs.
Our reading: The evidence on Sure Start is unusually strong for education policy: a positive return on investment of £2.05 per £1 spent, large lifetime earnings gains, reduced absences, and improved mental health — with the biggest gains flowing to the poorest children. These are measurable, IFS-backed findings, not projections. The policy's stated focus on play-based learning aligns with EEF evidence showing moderate developmental gains, again strongest for disadvantaged children. Together, these point clearly toward an improvement in O7, particularly on attainment gap and early development indicators. Two significant caveats temper the magnitude. First, the proposed £1.4bn per year is roughly half the real-terms peak spending of £2.7bn in 2009-10. Whether this is sufficient to restore meaningful coverage and quality is uncertain. Second, both the Sure Start research and the EEF evidence stress that quality — staffing, qualifications, ratios — is the deciding factor. In a context of existing workforce shortages and rising provider costs, the risk is that money buys hours of childcare rather than the high-quality, supported provision that actually drives long-term attainment gains. The direction is nonetheless 'improves': the underlying intervention has a strong evidence base, the equity focus is explicit, and the proposed investment is substantial even if below historic peak. The magnitude is moderate rather than major because the funding gap relative to peak and delivery risks are real and evidenced.