Public finances & the next generation: where the UK parties stand
Do the sums add up, or is the bill passed to our kids?
Independent, source-checked analysis of how each party’s policies would affect this — judged on the evidence, without telling the system who proposed them. How this works.
Labour — 23 policies affect this: 8 mixed · 6 helps · 5 hurts · 2 little effect · 2 genuinely contested. Compare interactively →
Create a Border Security Command and Reform the Asylum System — helps. This policy bundle appears to improve the public finances in the near term, mainly by ending the costly Rwanda scheme and reducing expensive hotel accommodation for asylum seekers. The main caveat is …
Implement Strict Fiscal Rules and Strengthen the OBR — helps. Committing to balance the current budget and reduce debt as a share of the economy, backed by independent OBR oversight, puts public finances on a more sustainable path — but the headroom is thin and …
Tackle Waste and Corruption in Public Spending — helps. This policy aims to recover lost public money and cut wasteful spending, which could modestly improve public finances — but the biggest recoveries (Covid fraud) are likely already beyond reach, so the…
Reduce Household Costs and Support Families — hurts. The policy adds new spending commitments while ruling out rises in the three largest revenue sources, with no stated funding mechanism. The evidence does not fully quantify the net cost, so the magnit…
Close Tax Loopholes and Modernise HMRC — helps. This package of measures aims to raise several billion pounds by closing tax loopholes and boosting HMRC enforcement, and the OBR has certified material additional revenue from the HMRC investment str…
Conservative — 39 policies affect this: 22 hurts · 7 little effect · 5 mixed · 3 genuinely contested · 2 helps. Compare interactively →
Cut Employee National Insurance — hurts. Cutting employee National Insurance from 12% to 6% would cost around £10 billion a year, and the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies says the funding plan relies on savings that are 'uncertain, u…
Abolish Self-Employed National Insurance — hurts. Abolishing self-employed National Insurance would remove roughly £2.3 billion a year in tax revenue by 2028-29 with no identified replacement funding, worsening the public finances. The key uncertaint…
Introduce Triple Lock Plus for Pensioners — hurts. Triple Lock Plus adds a new layer of cost on top of an already fiscally risky Triple Lock, with the extra personal allowance mechanism costing up to £2.4bn/year by 2029/30 and the underlying Triple Lo…
Expand Free Childcare for Working Parents — hurts. This policy roughly doubles public childcare spending to over £8 billion by 2027/28, with costs potentially running higher than government estimates — a significant unfunded or partially-funded spendi…
Reform Child Benefit Household Income Threshold — hurts. This policy costs around £1.3 billion a year and relies on a £6 billion tax-avoidance clampdown to pay for it — a funding source that independent analysts regard as uncertain. If the revenue doesn't m…
Liberal Democrat — 51 policies affect this: 29 hurts · 8 genuinely contested · 7 helps · 5 mixed · 1 little effect. Compare interactively →
Fiscal Responsibility Rule — helps. This rule commits the government to balancing day-to-day spending against taxes and getting debt falling as a share of the economy by 2029-30, and the OBR projects it will narrowly be met — but the he…
Increase HMRC Resources to Tackle Tax Avoidance and Evasion — helps. Giving HMRC more resources to chase unpaid tax has a strong track record of bringing in more money than it costs, which improves the public finances — but the actual revenue gains are genuinely uncert…
Reverse Conservative Bank Tax Cuts and Impose Windfall Tax on Energy Companies — helps. Reversing bank tax cuts and tightening the energy windfall tax would raise meaningful additional revenue, reducing the gap between spending and receipts. The main caveat is that the bank measures are …
Tax on FTSE-100 Share Buybacks — hurts. The tax is likely to raise little or no net revenue because companies are expected to switch from buybacks to dividends, cutting stamp duty receipts and generating only limited additional income tax. …
End Retrospective Tax Changes and Review IR35 — hurts. Ending the loan charge would forgo recovery of tax debt on avoidance schemes, and a fairness-framed review of IR35 points toward loosening rules that currently raise significant revenue — both weaken …
Reform UK — 52 policies affect this: 32 hurts · 12 genuinely contested · 4 mixed · 3 helps · 1 little effect. Compare interactively →
Freeze non-essential immigration — hurts. A large cut to immigration is consistently projected by independent bodies (OBR, IFS, Oxford Economics) to reduce GDP growth, shrink tax revenues, and widen the deficit — passing a bigger debt burden …
Detain and deport illegal migrants — hurts. The policy carries a confirmed £10 billion implementation cost, while the claimed savings rely on deportation targets that independent evidence suggests are far beyond what has ever been achieved in p…
Mandate 5% departmental spending cuts — helps. A mandated 5% departmental spending cut could reduce borrowing and improve fiscal sustainability — but independent analysts say the £50 billion target is not credible without cutting frontline service…
Cut foreign aid by 50% — helps. Cutting foreign aid by 50% would free up around £6 billion of public spending, directly reducing the deficit and improving the near-term fiscal position. The main caveat is that the government has alr…
Raise income tax threshold to £20,000 — hurts. Raising the income tax threshold to £20,000 and the higher rate threshold to £70,000 would cost at least £59–82 billion a year, with no credibly costed funding plan — leaving a very large unfunded hol…
Green — 32 policies affect this: 15 hurts · 6 mixed · 6 helps · 4 genuinely contested · 1 little effect. Compare interactively →
Strengthen and expand public NHS services — hurts. This policy commits to very large additional NHS spending — up to £28bn a year plus £20bn in capital — but names no funding source, which would worsen the public debt path unless offset elsewhere. Cap…
Introduce free personal social care and reform the care workforce — hurts. The policy commits £20 billion a year to free personal care but does not identify a funding source, meaning it would likely add substantially to borrowing or require large tax rises. Independent estim…
Restore and improve disability benefits and support — hurts. This policy would increase disability benefit spending and mandate new transport costs for councils, without stating any funding source — adding to an already-rising fiscal burden. The long-run debt p…
Increase funding for children's social care — hurts. This policy commits an extra £3bn in spending with no stated funding source, adding to borrowing or requiring cuts elsewhere in the near term. There is a plausible long-run argument that early interve…
Bring privatised utilities into public ownership — hurts. Bringing railways, water, and energy into public ownership through public investment would add hundreds of billions in debt to the public balance sheet. Whether the acquired assets generate enough ret…