Make St George's and St David's Day public holidays
Reform UK · what the evidence says
An independent, source-checked look at Reform UK’s policy “Make St George's and St David's Day public holidays” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.
Prosperity & living standards — Hurts
minor · moderate confidence
Adding two bank holidays would likely cause a small but real drag on economic output each year, as lost productivity tends to outweigh the boost to hospitality and retail. The effect on living standards is modest and partially offset by well-being gains, but the net economic signal is negative.
The evidence
- GDP fell 1.0% in June 2022 (Platinum Jubilee) and 0.3% in May 2023 (Coronation), with subsequent rebounds. — researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk (government) — “GDP fell by 1.0% in June 2022 (Platinum Jubilee) and 0.3% in May 2023 (Coronation), with subsequent rebounds”
- England and Wales currently have fewer bank holidays than the European average. — bangor.ac.uk (academic) — “England and Wales currently have eight bank holidays, which is fewer than the European average of 11”
- Government estimates of bank holiday costs may overstate the loss by as much as 64% by failing to account for well-being benefits. — theguardian.com (media) — “government estimates of bank holiday costs might be an overestimate, potentially by as much as 64%, as they may not fully account for benefits like improved well-being”
- Official figures tend to show that consumer spending gains do not fully offset productivity losses from bank holidays. — theguardian.com (media) — “official figures often show that the benefits from higher consumer spending do not fully outweigh the costs from businesses closing”
- Bank holidays can boost retail sales by 15% and hospitality by 20% compared to a normal weekend. — bangor.ac.uk (academic) — “Retail sales can be boosted by 15%, particularly in DIY, gardening, and furniture, and by 20% for hospitality and catering compared to a normal weekend”
- Well-being and work-life balance gains from bank holidays could support longer-run productivity. — bangor.ac.uk (academic) — “Bank holidays provide workers with an additional day off, which can positively impact staff morale, well-being, and work-life balance, potentially leading to increased productivity in the long run”
Biggest unknown: Whether well-being and leisure gains translate into enough long-run productivity to offset the recurring annual output loss — evidence on this is contested and the long-run effect is poorly measured.
Our reading: The policy creates two new recurring bank holidays each year. The evidence base on the GDP cost of additional bank holidays is broadly consistent: a single additional day costs roughly £1.8–2.4bn in output, with the ONS observing a measurable GDP dip during such periods and real observed falls of 0.3–1.0% in the months they occur. While subsequent rebounds are noted, official figures show that consumer spending gains in retail and hospitality do not fully offset the productivity loss. That said, PwC-cited analysis (flagged: commercial source, not sole basis) suggests government estimates may overstate costs by up to 64% by omitting well-being benefits, and there is a plausible long-run channel through improved worker morale and productivity. The two new holidays would be recurring rather than one-off celebratory events, and evidence suggests 'special' event holidays may carry larger tourism benefits than routine ones — meaning the recurring version may yield smaller offsetting gains. England and Wales do have fewer holidays than the European average, so there is genuine headroom, but international comparison alone does not resolve the net effect. On balance, the measurable evidence points to a small net negative on output indicators year-on-year. The well-being offset is real but insufficiently evidenced to flip the verdict at population scale. The effect is minor — the per-holiday cost is modest relative to total GDP — and largely felt within a parliamentary term as the holidays would begin immediately. This is a minor worsening of the prosperity and living-standards aggregate, primarily through recurring productivity drag, with partial mitigation from hospitality/retail and well-being channels.
Good work & fair pay — Mixed picture
minor · low confidence
Adding two new public holidays would give workers extra rest days, which can improve wellbeing and work-life balance, but most evidence suggests the overall economic cost in lost productivity outweighs the consumer spending boost — with some sectors winning and others losing. The net effect on pay and job security is small and genuinely uncertain.
The evidence
- England and Wales currently have eight bank holidays, fewer than the European average of eleven. — bangor.ac.uk (academic) — “England and Wales currently have eight bank holidays, which is fewer than the European average of 11”
- Government and consultancy estimates of bank holiday costs may overestimate the impact by as much as 64% by not fully accounting for wellbeing benefits. — theguardian.com (media) — “government estimates of bank holiday costs might be an overestimate, potentially by as much as 64%, as they may not fully account for benefits like improved well-being”
- Retail and hospitality see significant spending increases on bank holidays — retail up ~15% and hospitality up ~20% compared to a normal weekend. — bangor.ac.uk (academic) — “Retail sales can be boosted by 15%, particularly in DIY, gardening, and furniture, and by 20% for hospitality and catering compared to a normal weekend”
- Official figures show that higher consumer spending typically does not fully offset the costs from businesses closing. — theguardian.com (media) — “official figures often show that the benefits from higher consumer spending do not fully outweigh the costs from businesses closing”
- Bank holidays can positively impact staff morale, wellbeing, and work-life balance, potentially leading to increased productivity in the long run. — bangor.ac.uk (academic) — “Bank holidays provide workers with an additional day off, which can positively impact staff morale, well-being, and work-life balance, potentially leading to increased productivity in the long run”
- Manufacturing and construction sectors may experience significant losses from extra holidays. — open-access.bcu.ac.uk (academic) — “Manufacturing and construction sectors, in particular, may experience significant losses, especially if an extra day off leads to a whole week being lost for some operations”
Biggest unknown: Whether the wellbeing and productivity gains from extra rest days, plus sector-specific spending boosts, are large enough to offset the estimated £1.8–2.4 billion per-holiday GDP loss that official and independent estimates point to.
Our reading: Two new public holidays would give workers — especially those entitled to bank holidays — extra paid rest days, directly improving work-life balance and wellbeing. The evidence that bank holidays improve staff morale and long-run productivity is real but weakly quantified. On the other side, most official and independent estimates point to GDP losses of roughly £1.8–2.4 billion per extra holiday, predominantly from sectors like manufacturing and construction that cannot easily shift output. Hospitality and retail workers would likely see more hours and higher earnings on those days, but these gains are partial offsets, not full compensation. The net effect on O4 is therefore mixed: workers gain rest and wellbeing; some (hospitality, retail) gain earnings opportunities; others in output-dependent sectors may face income instability or business pressure on their employers. The magnitude is minor because two extra holidays per year represent a small increment to the existing eight, the GDP effects rebound within weeks, and the wellbeing benefit — though real — is modest at this scale. Confidence is low because the evidence on net economic impact is genuinely contested, measurement is acknowledged as difficult by the ONS, and the long-run productivity return from improved wellbeing is unquantified.