Increase Social and Affordable Housing
Labour · what the evidence says
An independent, source-checked look at Labour’s policy “Increase Social and Affordable Housing” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.
Affordable housing — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
This policy makes a serious attempt to boost social and affordable housing through new funding, stronger planning rules, and Right to Buy reforms — but even on optimistic projections it only partially closes the gap between supply and need, and delivery risks remain real.
The evidence
- The ratio of affordable homes per 1,000 adults in England has consistently fallen since 1980, reaching an all-time low of 88 in 2024. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “the ratio of affordable homes per 1,000 adults in England has consistently fallen since 1980, reaching an all-time low of 88 in 2024.”
- There are currently 1.27 million people on social housing waiting lists and 117,450 households in temporary accommodation. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “There are currently 1.27 million people on social housing waiting lists and 117,450 households in temporary accommodation.”
- Only 14% of additional affordable homes in the last decade were for social rent. — gov.uk (media) — “only 14% (75,000) of additional affordable homes in the last decade were social rent.”
- Right to Buy has sold 2.02 million social homes since 1980, with only 2% replaced, and 41% of sold homes are now in private landlord hands. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “The Right to Buy (RTB) scheme has significantly depleted social housing stock, with 2.02 million homes sold since 1980, and only 2% replaced in the same period.”
- There is a consensus that 90,000 social homes need to be built annually in England to meet demand. — committees.parliament.uk (government) — “The House of Commons Library highlights a consensus on the need to build 90,000 social homes annually in England to meet demand”
- The new £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme aims to deliver around 300,000 social and affordable homes over ten years, with at least 60% for social rent. — housing.org.uk (media) — “The new £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP), spanning ten years, aims to deliver around 300,000 social and affordable homes, with at least 60% designated for social rent.”
- Even in a best case, the SAHP would only slightly increase the affordable homes ratio from 88 to 91 per 1,000 adults by 2034. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “the Resolution Foundation projects the SAHP would only slightly increase this ratio to 91 per 1,000 adults by 2034.”
- Delivering 1.5 million new homes would be a real step-change but may not be game-changing for rebalancing supply and demand. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “while delivering 1.5 million new homes would be a "real step-change in housebuilding," it may not be "game-changing" for rebalancing housing supply and demand.”
- Right to Buy reforms, including a maximum 15% discount and a 35-year new build exemption, are expected to reduce RTB sales by around 25,000 over five years. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “A reduction in maximum cash discounts, implemented in November 2024, is expected to reduce RTB sales by around 25,000 over five years.”
- Cost minimisation rules in Homes England bids could still inadvertently favour schemes requiring less grant, at the expense of social rented homes which need higher grant rates. — new-economicsf.files.svdcdn.com (media) — “cost minimisation rules in Homes England's bids can still inadvertently favour schemes that require less grant, often at the expense of social rented homes which typically need higher grant rates due to lower rental inco…”
- Planning reforms have often been 'tenure blind', leading councils to approve more market-rate housing rather than social homes. — ippr.org (institutional) — “planning reforms have often been "tenure blind," leading councils to approve more market-rate housing rather than social homes.”
Biggest unknown: Whether the £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme will actually deliver 300,000 homes at the promised social-rent mix, given cost-minimisation pressures and historical planning system shortfalls.
Our reading: The policy attacks the affordable housing crisis on multiple fronts: a large new funding programme (£39bn SAHP), stronger planning obligations, Right to Buy reform, and capacity support for councils and housing associations. The baseline evidence shows a desperate need — the worst affordable-homes ratio on record, 1.27 million on waiting lists, and a decade in which only 14% of new affordable homes were social rent. The policy's direction of travel on all these fronts is clearly positive. The SAHP's 60% social-rent target is a meaningful shift from recent practice. RTB reforms — particularly the 35-year new-build exemption and sharply reduced discounts — should slow the haemorrhage of stock. These are genuine, substantive measures. However, the magnitude must be kept honest. The Resolution Foundation projects the SAHP would lift the affordable-homes ratio only marginally (88 to 91 per 1,000 adults), well below the consensus need of 90,000 social homes per year. Delivering even 30,000 social homes annually (60% of 50,000 SAHP homes per year) leaves a large gap. Cost-minimisation pressures in grant allocation and tenure-blind planning approvals could erode the social-rent mix in practice. RTB abolition advocates argue the reforms do not go far enough. On balance, the evidence supports a 'moderate' improvement verdict: the policy is a genuine, substantive step up — likely the most significant in a generation — but structural constraints mean it will not resolve the affordable housing crisis within this parliament, and effects will accumulate only over the long term.
Inequality & fair shares — Helps
minor · moderate confidence
Expanding social rented housing and curbing Right to Buy helps lower-income households most, narrowing the gap in housing costs between rich and poor. The improvement is likely modest, as even the best-case projection only slightly reverses a decades-long decline in affordable housing stock.
The evidence
- The policy prioritises new social rented homes and reviews Right to Buy discounts to protect existing stock. — labour.org.uk (manifesto) — “New social rented homes will be prioritised, and existing stock better protected by reviewing increased 'right to buy' discounts and increasing protections for newly-built social housing.”
- The ratio of affordable homes per 1,000 adults in England has fallen to an all-time low of 88 in 2024. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “the ratio of affordable homes per 1,000 adults in England has consistently fallen since 1980, reaching an all-time low of 88 in 2024.”
- Only 14% of additional affordable homes built in the last decade were for social rent, the tenure most beneficial to the lowest-income households. — gov.uk (media) — “only 14% (75,000) of additional affordable homes in the last decade were social rent.”
- Right to Buy has removed 2.02 million social homes since 1980 with only 2% replaced, shrinking the stock that benefits lower-income renters. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “The Right to Buy (RTB) scheme has significantly depleted social housing stock, with 2.02 million homes sold since 1980, and only 2% replaced in the same period.”
- Around 41% of RTB homes are now owned by private landlords, meaning the housing-inequality benefit of the original social tenancy has been permanently lost in most cases. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “Approximately 41% of homes sold through RTB are now in the hands of private landlords.”
- There are 1.27 million people on social housing waiting lists and 117,450 households in temporary accommodation, indicating large unmet need concentrated among lower-income households. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “There are currently 1.27 million people on social housing waiting lists and 117,450 households in temporary accommodation.”
- The new SAHP targets at least 60% of its 300,000 homes for social rent — a major shift from recent practice — which would skew benefits toward lower-income renters. — gov.uk (media) — “The new £39 billion SAHP targets at least 60% of its 300,000 homes to be for social rent, a notable shift considering only 14% (75,000) of additional affordable homes in the last decade were social rent.”
- Even in the best case, the SAHP would only raise the affordable homes ratio from 88 to 91 per 1,000 adults by 2034 — a marginal improvement relative to the scale of inequality in housing access. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “the Resolution Foundation projects the SAHP would only slightly increase this ratio to 91 per 1,000 adults by 2034.”
- Cost-minimisation rules in Homes England bids could still undermine social rent delivery, because social rented homes typically need higher grant rates than other tenures. — new-economicsf.files.svdcdn.com (media) — “cost minimisation rules in Homes England's bids can still inadvertently favour schemes that require less grant, often at the expense of social rented homes which typically need higher grant rates due to lower rental inco…”
- RTB reforms — including reducing maximum discounts to 15% and a 35-year new-build exemption — are expected to reduce RTB sales by around 25,000 over five years, slowing further stock erosion. — blog.anthonycollins.com (media) — “A reduction in maximum cash discounts, implemented in November 2024, is expected to reduce RTB sales by around 25,000 over five years.”
Biggest unknown: Whether the £39 billion SAHP can actually deliver 300,000 homes on time — build-cost pressures, planning delays, and cost-minimisation rules that favour lower-grant tenures could all reduce the social-rent component that drives the inequality benefit.
Our reading: O14 tracks the gap between richest and the rest. Social rented housing is one of the most direct instruments for narrowing housing-cost inequality: below-market rents disproportionately benefit lower-income households who are otherwise priced out. The baseline is poor — the affordable-homes ratio is at an all-time low, social rent has been only 14% of new affordable supply for a decade, and RTB has removed over two million homes with almost none replaced. The policy addresses all three failure points: a large new programme with at least 60% social rent, strengthened planning obligations, and substantive RTB reform including a 35-year new-build exemption and discount cuts projected to prevent ~25,000 further sales. These are real, committed instruments (budget, statutory changes, eligibility rules), not merely aspirational language, so the soft-verb threshold is passed. However, the magnitude is constrained. Even the Resolution Foundation's best-case projection moves the affordable homes ratio from 88 to only 91 per 1,000 adults by 2034 — a small reversal of a decades-long trend, and well below the 90,000 social homes per year consensus estimate of need. Cost-minimisation rules in bidding may still dilute the social-rent share in practice. The time horizon is long-term because the programme runs 2026–2036 and housing stock changes accumulate slowly. The inequality benefit is genuine but modest — enough for 'improves/minor', not 'moderate', because the gap between what this delivers and what would materially rebalance housing access for the bottom income quintile remains large.